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Friedrich Hayek

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Human reason can neither predict nor deliberately shape its own future. Its advances consist in finding out where it has been wrong.
--
p. 41

 
Friedrich Hayek

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People ask me to predict the future, when all I want to do is prevent it. Better yet, build it. Predicting the future is much too easy, anyway. You look at the people around you, the street you stand on, the visible air you breathe, and predict more of the same. To hell with more. I want better.

 
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"I would like to make the point that we cannot undo the past but we can learn from it, and we cannot predict the future but we can shape and build it."

 
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I am profoundly skeptical about our abilities to predict the future in general, and human behavior in particular.

 
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Prediction of the future is possible only in systems that have stable parameters like celestial mechanics. The only reason why prediction is so successful in celestial mechanics is that the evolution of the solar system has ground to a halt in what is essentially a dynamic equilibrium with stable parameters. Evolutionary systems, however, by their very nature have unstable parameters. They are disequilibrium systems and in such systems our power of prediction, though not zero, is very limited because of the unpredictability of the parameters themselves. If, of course, it were possible to predict the change in the parameters, then there would be other parameters which were unchanged, but the search for ultimately stable parameters in evolutionary systems is futile, for they probably do not exist... Social systems have Heisenberg principles all over the place, for we cannot predict the future without changing it.

 
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so it is with human reason, which strives not against faith, when enlightened, but rather furthers and advances it.

 
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