William Poundstone
William Poundstone is an American author, columnist, and skeptic.
The best strategy is one that offers the highest compound return consistent with no risk of going broke.
The assumption that anything true is knowable is the grandfather of paradoxes.
Samuelson spotted a mistake in Bacheliers work. Bachelier's model had failed to consider that stock prices cannot fall below zero.
Kelly was aware that there is one type of favorable bet available to everyone; the stock market.
The ultimate compound return rate is acutely sensitive to fat tails.
Are there any mythical beasts which aren't simple pastiches of nature? Centaurs, minotaurs, unicorns, griffons, chimeras, sphinxes, manticores, and the like don't speak well for the human imagination. None is as novel as a kangaroo or starfish.
There were many at Bell Labs and MIT who compared Shannon's insight to Einstein's. Others found that comparison unfair - unfair to Shannon.
There is a deep connection between Bernoulli's dictum and John Kelly's 1956 publication. It turns out that Kelly's prescription can be restated as this simple rule: When faced with a choice of wagers or investments, choose the one with the highest geometric means of outcomes.
Samuelson, however, hedged his personal bets - by putting some of his own money in Berkshire Hathaway.
The story of the Kelly system is a story of secrets - or if you prefer, a story of entropy.