Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Essayist, epistemologist, researcher, and former practitioner of mathematical finance.
I always remind myself that what one observes is at best a combination of variance and returns, not just returns.
Mental clarity is the child of courage, not the other way around.
It’s harder to say no when you really mean it.
Forecasting by bureaucrats tends to be used for anxiety relief rather than for adequate policy making.
Rank beliefs not according to their plausibility but by the harm they may cause.
Consider that the turkey's experience may have, rather than no value, a negative value. It learned from observation, as we are all advised to do (hey, after all, this is what is believed to be the scientific method). Its confidence increased as the number of friendly feedings grew, and it felt increasingly safe even though the slaughter was more and more imminent. Consider that the feeling of safety reached its maximum when the risk was at the highest!
A man is honorable in proportion to the personal risks he takes for his opinion.
The book is the only medium left that hasn’t been corrupted by the profane.
Half of life—the interesting half of life—we don't even have a name for.
A good maxim allows you to have the last word without even starting a conversation.
Modernity has replaced ethics with legalese.
When we want to do something while unconsciously certain to fail, we seek advice so we can blame someone else for the failure.
It is painful to think about ruthlessness as an engine of improvement.
Much of modern life is preventable chronic stress injury.
Social science means inventing a certain brand of human we can understand.
History is opaque. You see what comes out, not the script that produces events, [...] The generator of historical events is different from the events themselves, much as the minds of the gods cannot be read just by witnessing their deeds.
Just as dyed hair makes older men less attractive, it is what you do to hide your weaknesses that makes them repugnant.
Daily news and sugar confuse our system in the same manner.
One cannot assert authority by accepting one's own fallibility. Simply, people need to be blinded by knowledge - we are made to follow leaders who can gather people together because the advantages of being in groups trump the disadvantages of being alone. It has been more profitable for us to bind together in the wrong direction than to be alone in the right one. Those who have followed the assertive idiot rather than the introspective wise person have passed us some of their genes. This is apparent from a social pathology: psychopaths rally followers.
We didn't get where we are thanks to the sissy notion of resilience.